Description
Cover -- Contents -- Preface to the 2023 Edition -- Preface and Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Chapter One. The Prehistory of the Classical Interpretation of Probability: Expectation and Evidence -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Quantitative and Qualitative Probabilities -- 1.3 Expectation, Equity, and Aleatory Contracts -- 1.4 Degrees of Certainty and the Hierarchy of Proofs -- 1.5 Conclusion -- Chapter Two. Expectation and the Reasonable Man -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Expectation as Reasonableness -- 2.3 The Debate over Expectation -- 2.4 Conclusion -- Chapter Three. The Theory and Practice of Risk -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Risk before Probability Theory -- 3.3 The Mathematical Theory of Risk -- 3.4 Risk after Probability Theory -- 3.5 Conclusion -- Chapter Four. Associationism and the Meaning of Probability -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Probability, Experience, and Belief -- 4.3 The Dissociation of Objective and Subjective Probabilities -- 4.4 Conclusion -- Chapter Five. The Probability of Causes -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Bernoulli's Theorem and the Urn Model of Causation -- 5.3 Bayes' Theorem and the Problem of Induction -- 5.4 The Calculus of Induction -- 5.5 Conclusion -- Chapter Six. Moralizing Mathematics -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 The Moral Sciences -- 6.3 Testimony and the Probability of Miracles -- 6.4 The Probability of Judgments -- 6.5 Conclusion -- Epilogue. The Decline of the Classical Theory -- Bibliography -- Index.
